Xi Jinping exerts political and military pressure to accelerate Taiwan’s integration

Chinese leader Xi Jinping used his biggest agenda-setting rhetoric in half a decade to warn the United States of more support for Taiwan, rebuked “external forces” for escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and suggested they would be responsible if Beijing felt compelled to do so. attacking the country.

“In the face of severe provocations from the Taiwan independence forces and the interference of outside forces, we have resolutely carried out a great struggle against separatism and interference,” He said something in a letter The opening of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China on Sunday.

Reiterating Beijing’s priority in seeking peaceful reunification while refusing to renounce the use of force, somethingwho did not specifically name the United States, said, “What this is basically targeting are outside powers and a small minority of Taiwan independence forces, but not the majority of Taiwan citizens at all.”

The comments reflected Beijing’s growing sense of urgency about what it sees as US attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait – notably arms sales, visits by US politicians and President Joe Biden’s repeated statements that Washington is committed to defending Taiwan if it is China. were to attack.

“Since the United States and China are involved in [a] “In the great-power competition, Beijing is now more and more focused on countering what it sees as outside interference in the Taiwan issue,” said Zhang Wuyue, a professor at Tamkang University in Taipei.

Chinese government White papers The August publication claimed that outside forces were trying to exploit Taiwan to contain China, prevent the Chinese nation from achieving full unification and halt the process of national renewal.

Xi has linked his legacy to unification, calling it an integral part of his plan to achieve a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049 — a century after the party first set its sights on it. Taiwan.

As the congress prepares to make Xi the first party leader since Mao Zedong to remain in office after two terms, policy experts believe Beijing could try to speed up progress toward that goal.

Xi told congressional delegates that China “firmly adheres to the leading and proactive role in cross-Straits relations.”

“Beijing will not wait for Taiwan,” said Zhao Chunshan, a leading Chinese expert on Taiwan, who has advised the other four presidents on cross-strait policy. “Shi said that the Taiwan question cannot be prolonged without a solution, so they take the things that they can manipulate themselves and do them first.”

There is ample evidence of this effort already. Over the past three years, Beijing has launched a series of initiatives that resemble the planning of post-unification Taiwan and suggest to the public that this era is imminent.

These include a railway between the port city of Fuzhou and Taipei in a plan for national transportation network projects to be completed by 2035. There are also tips circulating on social media for Chinese citizens about buying property in Taiwan after unification, while online lectures have advised opinion leaders that The country is moving towards unification.

The driver is Xi’s suggestion – first floated in January 2019 – that “the Chinese are on my side [Taiwan] The strait began researching in more realistic terms under the “one country, two systems” framework originally developed for Taiwan but first applied in Hong Kong. I suggested to themExploring the two systems formula for Taiwan and enrich the practice of peaceful monotheism.”

The Chinese leader’s concept of this process is what he calls “integrated development”. According to research papers by Chinese scholars specializing in Taiwan politics, the approach envisions drawing the island more closely to China through a network of personal and business interests, and gradually winning over the Taiwanese people to Beijing’s vision of a united great nation through educational exchanges and propaganda.

However, in Taiwan, this batch is not going anywhere. Since early 2020, pandemic travel and visa restrictions imposed by both Beijing and Taipei have severely hampered the CPC’s efforts to attract Taiwanese students, businessmen, religious communities, grassroots officials and even gang leaders.

Even if cross-strait travel reopens, prospects are bleak. The Taiwan government is resisting deeper integration with China, and the main opposition politicians refuse to discuss unification because the vast majority of People want to keep it Actual independence of the country.

Xi is now moving from the more patient approach of his predecessor Hu Jintao to a policy that emphasizes progress toward unification. “During Xi Jinping’s first term in office, our Chinese counterparts remained focused on preventing moves toward formal independence for Taiwan,” said Wen Te Song, lecturer in the Taiwan Studies Program at the Australian National University. “But now, their research and publicity efforts have moved to the next step of promoting standardization.”

The fact that Beijing is marrying political efforts with it Increasingly threatening military exercises It raised suspicions that Xi intended to take over the country by force.

Following the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taipei in August, the People’s Liberation Army conducted unprecedented exercises across Taiwan. Since then, Beijing has been sending fighters, drones and warships towards the island daily.

But analysts believe that warnings from the US military and intelligence officials about an imminent invasion have been exaggerated. “Beijing still has strategic patience and this is an opportunity for Washington,” Col. Zhou Bo, a former official in the Chinese Ministry of Defense and a senior fellow at Tsinghua University, wrote in an article in the South China Morning Post last month.

Other experts have argued that Beijing prefers the use of military force to intimidate, deter, and coerce war. “There are very few scenarios under which Xi will seek unity at any cost,” said Zhao, Taiwan’s top advisor to China.

Although for him, unification must be achieved along with the great renewal of China, this is a dialectical relationship. He will not give up the use of force to achieve unification, but the achievement of unification must not harm renewal, the ultimate goal.”