US Fails to Meet Emissions Goals: Research

Steam rises from a coal-fired power plant on Nov. 18, 2021, in Craig, Colorado.

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions cuts would fall as much as 18 percent short of Paris climate agreement goals under current path, study finds a report Posted on Tuesday by Rhodium Group.

The 194-nation agreement, which the Biden administration rejoined after the Trump administration withdrew, calls for the United States to cut emissions in half from 2005 levels by 2030. However, the United States is set to miss the target based on current policies and legislation to cut overall emissions by 32 percent to 43 percent, according to the report, with the reduction increasing to as much as 56 percent over the next five years.

The report’s authors attribute much of the progress in reducing emissions to the Inflation Reduction Act, noting that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are down 18% from 2005 levels in 2023. Even the report’s projected deficit represents an improvement over the Rhodium Group’s 2022 forecast, which predicted a decline of 24% to 35%.

Despite the projected shortfall, renewable energy investment has risen sharply in recent years to 5.1% of private investment nationwide in the first fiscal quarter of this year, and much of this investment is likely to continue regardless of political outcomes, the report notes.

But the authors note that the market is likely to be “very responsive” to politics and policy in the coming years. There are also likely to be a number of legal challenges to federal regulations as a result of the recent Supreme Court decision that struck down the so-called Chevron Doctrine, which gives federal agencies broad discretion in interpreting federal laws.

“Given the significant progress made in reducing emissions in 2011, [report] “It is the function of these regulations, and we will be watching closely to see which rules are valid and which are not,” the authors wrote.