- Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility have forecast a five-quarter recession starting in the first quarter of 2023, but the data has so far defied expectations.
- The UK remains the only country in the Group of Seven (G7) countries that has not fully recovered the production lost during the Covid-19 pandemic.
City workers at Paternoster Square, where the headquarters of the London Stock Exchange is located, in the City of London, UK, on Thursday, March 2, 2023.
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Official figures on Friday showed that the UK economy expanded by 0.3% in January, beating expectations as it continued to fend off what economists see as an inevitable recession.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a monthly increase of 0.1% in gross domestic product. The Office for National Statistics said that gross domestic product was flat during the three months to the end of January.
“The services sector grew by 0.5% in January 2023, after falling by 0.8% in December 2022, with the largest contributions to growth in January 2023 coming from education, transportation and warehousing, human health activities, arts and leisure and entertainment activities, all of which rebounded after falling in December 2022.”
Production fell 0.3% in January after growing 0.3% in December, while the construction sector fell 1.7% in January after stabilizing in the previous month.
The UK economy showed no growth in the last quarter of 2022 to avoid a narrow recession – generally defined as two quarters of negative growth – but contracted 0.5% in December.
Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility have forecast a five-quarter recession starting in the first quarter of 2023, but the data has so far exceeded expectations.
The UK remains the only country in the Group of Seven (G7) countries that has not fully recovered the production lost during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Census Bureau said on Friday that monthly gross domestic product is now estimated to be 0.2% below pre-pandemic levels.
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