NFL Draft 2024: Teams that could trade up and down in the first round

One element of any NFL Draft that keeps us all on our toes is the possibility of trading — or more accurately, several of them — in the first round.

The truth is that almost any team can make a trade on Day 1, but simple moves are difficult to predict; It's often a byproduct of how the board looks once the event starts. Last year, we saw 43 total trades over the three days of the draft (a record for the Combined Draft era, according to ESPN Stats & Information), and seven of them occurred during the first round. There were nine deals in the first round of the year. Before too.

So who can make a move on Day 1 this time? Let's take a look at the teams that might be logical candidates for a trade or waiver and break down the math behind those potential moves. We'll start with the franchises that could move up and scale in these teams' current first-round draft rankings.

Go to teams that can:
Trade | It is trading down

Trade candidates

First round slot: No. 6

The Giants have made no secret of their interest in considering a quarterback in this year's draft — Daniel Jones struggled last season before tearing his ACL — but it's not a certainty that a top-four passer will be there with the No. 6 pick. There are several factors the Giants must consider. A consideration if they are truly intent on taking a QB in the first round is the cost, not least of which. It sounds expensive, but I imagine that if they drafted the Cardinals at No. 4, for example, Arizona would start things off by asking for a 2025 first-round pick to complete the deal. That's a lot to move up two spots but that may be what it takes if New York wants a quarterback that bad.

Interestingly, only three times in the combined draft era has a team in the top five traded up to acquire a QB on draft day, most recently the Bears for Mitchell Trubisky in 2017, according to ESPN Stats & Information. New York currently has six total picks this year, the second-fewest in the league.

First round slot: No. 10

This team is what it's all about this season, and if there's an opportunity to move up a notch to grab one of the top three receivers, are the Jets really going to pass up that opportunity? I don't think so, as they'll be hit with an electric foul when a healthy Aaron Rodgers throws darts to the receiving room of Washington's Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and Washington's Roma Udunze, for example — as long as the protection up front holds up. However, planes do not have a second round plane, which may limit how far they can move. They have seven total picks.

First round openings: No. 11, 23

Perhaps no team has seen more trade speculation than Minnesota, which is of course actively searching for available quarterbacks following the departure of Kirk Cousins ​​this offseason. While Sam Darnold has been added as a potential reserve option, the Vikings already have two valuable first-round picks and nine overall picks that could be used to make a push up the board — perhaps for one of LSU's Jayden Daniels, North Carolina's Drake May or Michigan's JJ McCarthy.

It would cost more than just those two picks to get into the top five, though — it would probably require tying Minnesota to a 2025 first-round pick in any deal. Calls to the Patriots (No. 3), Cardinals (No. 4) or Chargers (No. 5) would make perfect sense.

First round slot: No. 12

Denver's quarterback depth chart is extremely thin, as the team only has Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci under contract at the moment. Coach Sean Payton has not rejected a trade, but there is a complicating factor at play: Denver does not have a second-round pick in this year's draft, leaving the team without a valuable trade chip. In total, the Broncos have eight picks in this draft, including three in the fifth round.

However, Denver is expected to at least explore the possibility of moving up to cut the signal-caller, absent the team feeling strongly that Stidham could be the starter. Again, the numbers 3, 4, 5 and possibly 7 can be chosen in play.

First round slot: No. 13

Another team that has publicly addressed the possibility of moving up, the Raiders have all kinds of options on the table. But what's even more remarkable is a move up the board, as the team has been linked to LSU's Daniels — though moving high enough to land him may be unlikely. Is it Daniels or a failure in Las Vegas in terms of move-up options? This part is unclear, but the organization's consistent stance that anything that makes a team better is up for discussion, makes this team fun to watch. The Raiders have eight picks, including one in each round and an additional seventh-rounder.

First round slot: No. 28

After the Stefon Diggs trade, Buffalo's wideout need increased — and dramatically. While this class offers historical depth at the position, Buffalo's chance of landing a starting perimeter receiver is best found within the first 20-25 picks of this year's draft, a small rung ahead of its current 28th pick. GM Brandon Beane has gone in the first round in four of the past six drafts, because he's not afraid to go after a specific target.

In my estimation, jump the line for LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. or Texas Adonai Mitchell It would be a good job by Buffalo. Each will provide size and speed to the spot, and it may require going into the 17-23 range to land one of them. Although the Bills don't have a third-round pick, they do have 10 picks at their disposal.

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First round slot: No. 31

The 49ers need reinforcements up front, but so do a lot of the teams in front of them. Since San Francisco is running with 10 picks in this year's draft and has a roster with very few holes, GM John Lynch has an opportunity to be aggressive moving forward on other teams in need of a tackle in this range of the draft — including Dallas at No. 24 , Green Bay at No. 25 and Baltimore at No. 30.

It's hard to pinpoint teams in the late teens or early 20s that have the motivation to move down a level (and that's the cross-section of teams that feel like they're not that far away from being true Super Bowl contenders), but I've singled out San Francisco as a team to watch in case The offensive tackle happened quickly – as expected. Maybe someone like Georgia's Amarius Mims could be on board.

Teams that could trade in the first round

We may also see some teams move to the back end of the first round, and both the Panthers at No. 33 and Patriots at No. 34 need wide receiver reinforcements. This would make them logical candidates for a trade if they felt their lists of preferred prospects at the position were shrinking late on Day 1, with several teams having a WR they need to pick late on. To be clear, this isn't based on any information — it's just something I thought about when I went through the exercise of multi-round mock drafts and saw how quickly pass rushers can fly off the board in the first round.

Trade candidates

First round slot: Number 3

I've been steadfast in my stance that the Patriots should take whichever Daniels-Maye quarterback they land at No. 3, feel really good about that and spend the rest of their draft backing up that player with better pass protection. .

But I'm not naive to the idea that if New England isn't enamored with any potential quarterback available, it could move down in a swap for any of the interested partners — think somewhere in the range of numbers 11-13 — in exchange for what would almost certainly be a great pool of picks. Any trade would undoubtedly involve multiple first-rounders, and such a trade would allow the Patriots to address other needs and potentially gain draft capital in the future. The Patriots have completed 90 daily trades since 2000, 16 more than any other franchise, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Could we see another early day one move?

First round openings: No. 4, 27

Arizona has firm faith in quarterback Kyler Murray, so it makes sense for the Cards to listen to the calls from the No. 4 pick from teams looking to move up to one of their starting four quarterbacks. GM Monti Ossenfort made a trade from third to 12th last year, then moved back to sixth to take offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. A similar path would make sense to me this year, as the risk in Arizona works by trading to the downside so far They will lose the top three in the class: Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. and LSU Malik Nabars And Udunze.

If Arizona were a dance partner with Minnesota at No. 11, a trade back into the top 10 with a willing partner would be less expensive (I'll dive into the Giants as a fit there in a moment). Notably, the Cardinals are tied for the most picks this year at 11.

First round slot: no 5

Trainer Jim Harbaugh has a business card he hands out with a set of life rules, and one of them is “Don't try to win every fight in the first round.” It's unlikely this is a reference to the first round of the NFL draft, but it's a good reminder that this is the beginning of the process for the Chargers in reshaping their roster around quarterback Justin Herbert. Acquiring more assets could be exactly what the Chargers are looking to do this year, as they have nine picks and teams targeting a quarterback early are sure to call them. Again, consider picks in the 11-13 range as potential trade targets.

The Chargers joined the Dolphins as the only team not to make a single draft day trade last year. And according to ESPN Stats & Information, the Chargers have made just five draft day trades under former GM Tom Telesco over 11 years (2013-23 drafts), the fewest in the NFL in that span. So we'll see if the new regime is more open to trades on draft night.

First round slot: number 7

Hear me on this: Basically, every mock draft these days makes sense that Tennessee takes Notre Dame's left tackle Alternative atmosphere. He's a great player who I consider the best in his class and is sure to fill Tennessee's biggest remaining need. But if the Giants feel the top tier of tackles is closely clustered — rather than one player standing above the rest — they could be a team looking to move a few spots in an attempt to collect more picks and still get one of the top two or three tackles. In class.

If Tennessee drops into the early double-digit range, any of Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Oregon State's Talise Fawaja, or Alabama's JC Latham could be available. Tennessee currently has seven picks and no third-rounder.

First round openings: No. 1, 9

Let's be clear – we're discussing the Bears' ninth overall pick here, not their first pick overall. And we'll make this very clear: Chicago enters the draft with just four picks, the fewest of any team in the NFL. But they're also the only team with two picks in the top 10, so they're in a good position to add key impact players. If GM Ryan Poles wants to add more venture capital, a simple move down could easily take care of that while also giving the Bears leverage potential.

First round slot: No. 10

The only team we have in both categories is the Jets. There's a bit of debate about whether the Jets should use No. 10 on someone like Georgia Brooke Powers To provide an immediate impact or address the offensive line to add depth behind veteran additions Tyrone Smith and Morgan Moses. Given that the team currently does not have a second-round pick, trading down to recoup some capital should be in the discussion as well.

If the Jets plan to take one of their offensive linemen in the first round, they could look to teams that are willing to be in the mix for one of the best tackles available but are concerned that their preferred targets won't fall into their hands. An example of this is the Saints in No. 14.