Is the English variant too dangerous? Two new studies suggest no

According to Public Health France Last Weekly Update, The English variant (501Y.V1 or B.1.1.7) now represents 81.9% of cases in France. The Speed The modified dazzling nature of the original strain confirms its highly contagious nature, and several studies have confirmed it. On the other hand, the question of whether this is too deadly or dangerous remains controversial.

Two new studies have been published Lancet Infectious Diseases And The Lancet Public Health It also now says that the English variant that appeared in the UK last December will not cause severe forms of the disease His symptoms Not different from other strains.

There is not much risk for severe forms

In the first study Lancet Infectious Diseases, Directed by Eleni NostouliUniversity College In London, researchers compared 496 patients with severe forms, of which 58% were carriers of the English variant and 42% were affected by another strain. “ No link between severe form or death and heredity has been demonstrated. 2, confirms the study. 18% of patients carrying the variant were thus classified Gravity Higher, compared to 17% for the other group. According to Eleni Nostouli, there is no significant difference. On the other hand, the study confirms that the carriers of the variant are a Virus load More Nose, Which promotes more infection.

Other study The Lancet Public Health, Still based on completely different criteria, confirms this conclusion. The researchers compiled data from 36,900 participantsApplication Govt symptom study, Which encourages users to report Symptoms As well as their results Check the PCR. According to the results, the intensity is not the only one Period Symptoms do not differ between carriers of the variant and those with another strain, however Restoration rate (0.6%) not more. This suggests Antibody of Virus Protects well from original variation.

Conflicting results

However, several months have confirmed that the English variant has become more dangerous in recent months. Researchers London School & Tropical Medicine The English variant is estimated to be 64% higher mortality (see below). Another study Natural The death toll released in March was 55% higher, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson declaring the British virus the most dangerous in January.

How do you explain such weird results? May be due Allies Reflect different populations or patterns Sorting More or less sensitive. But above all, it proves that they need to be very careful about the studies that appear over time. Virus death, Vaccine efficacy Or Control measures. The SARS – Cove-2 To a large extent still escaping our determination.

Corona virus: English variant is 64% more dangerous

Article Julie Kern Released 16/03/2021

A study conducted jointly by several English universities indicates that the VOC 202012/1 variant is more dangerous than other types. This confirms the results obtained by other English scientists.

A study published in March P.M.J. Confirms the observations made by the scientists London School & Tropical Medicine In their pre-published study: The English variant is more dangerous Other types. This time, several English universities followed about 100,000 people who came to screen in the Clinical Analysis Laboratory for SARS-CoV-2 from October 2020 to February 2021; 54,906 of them were screened for English variant (negative or different PCR) Protein S) and 54.906 or Another variation (PCR positive Uncomfortable Protein S). Scientists have discovered a metric, the number of deaths within 28 days Screening Between these two groups: 227 deaths were reported in the English variant group and 141 deaths in the second group.

The English variant is said to be 64% more deadly

The statistical analyzes carried out in this collaboration indicate that the English variance is high Lettuce, 34 to 104% (95% confidence gap for a) compared to other types Risk ratio Between 1.34 – 2.04). Very broad, of course, but scientists estimate a 64% increase in the death rate. The risk of dying within 28 days of being affected by the English variant is relatively low (4.1 deaths per 1,000 cases and 2.5 deaths per 1,000 cases). Those who died after being affected by the English variant were mostly elderly and mostly men.

Scientists used only data from screenings carried out in a clinical analysis laboratory, but only young people without disabilities were screened there. The elderly or those weakened by chronic diseases are examined in the hospital and we can assume that the data not taken into account here and the percentage estimated here are high. Scientists have not yet estimated the increase in mortality for the most vulnerable age group Govit-19.

The study shows that the English variant is very dangerous

Article published by Julie Kern on March 13, 2021

Scientists have shown that the English variant is very contagious. But is it even worse? This is according to the authors of this pre-published study conducted in the UK.

Boris Johnson said several weeks ago now English variant (P.1.1.7) seemed very dangerous. Following this announcement, several scientific studies were published on this variant, all of which pointed to its increased prevalence, but not to its death. Today, scientists London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine In publishing a statistical study indicating that the English variant is actually more dangerous than the D614G variant, Who lose ground. This work has not yet been re-read by the scientific community, so the results should be taken with caution and may turn out to be in favor of future publication in a scientific journal with a certification reading group.

High risk of death for English variant

In this study, the scientists used dataOpenSAFELY, A site that brings together clinical data of treated patients National Health Service, Or 40% in English. Between November 16, 2020 and January 11, 2021, 184,786 people (also known as non-variants) were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 and not vaccinated, including 91,775 infected with the English variant and 93,011 infected with the D614G variant. In general, English variation affects younger people who may be affected by factors comorbidity Than non-variation. A total of 419 deaths caused variation and 418 D614G strain.

With this model, scientists first calculated the risk of death for both variance and non-variance. Adjusted for age and comorbidities, the risk of death was two-thirds higher (HR: 1.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09) compared to those calculated with non-variance. More simply, scientists explain that for every three deaths caused by a lack of variation in a particular population, the English variant causes five deaths in the same population.

This assessment is in the same vein Danish scientists This indicates that the English variant is associated with hospitalization (Proportion of discrepancies Adjusted: 1.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.32-2.04).

Risk of increasing with age

The absolute risk of death was assessed for both the English variant and the non-English variant 28 days after the infection was confirmed. Here again, this risk is high for the variant that appeared in the Kent. This is more important for men than women, and increases with age and the number of comorbidities. The absolute risk of dying after 28 days is greatest for men over the age of 80 with two or more comorbidities.

Scientists deliberately excluded those who were vaccinated from this study Vaccine. Or les Vaccines In MRNA Presented by Pfizer and Moderna Proved their effectiveness Contrary to the English variant, the figures given here are different for people who have been vaccinated.