European elections: The center-left struggles to curb the push from the right

“The very soul of Europe is in danger,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez warned fellow centre-left European politicians who gathered in Rome ahead of a tough EU election campaign.

At stake was how to halt the seemingly unstoppable rise of right-wing and far-right parties in the European Parliament vote, which begins Thursday in the Netherlands and continues in all 27 EU member states until Sunday.

Only four EU member states have center-left or left-wing parties in their governments, and recent performances at the ballot box have been poor. The omens of the coming days are not good.

The European left is in “bad health,” says Professor Marc Lazar of Sciences Po in Paris and Louis University in Rome, the result of a steady decline that began in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The center-left in the European Union constitutes the second largest group in the outgoing European Parliament. Known as the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, they are expected, at best, to cling to their 139 seats in the 720-seat parliament.

It is Europe’s right-wing parties that blow the wind, and any success achieved by the center left is likely to be offset by losses elsewhere.

Socialists and Democrats are expected to take the lead in only four countries Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and Malta. Even then, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democratic Party of Denmark is bracing for a significant decline in support.

It is one of only four countries out of 27 member states where centre-left or left-wing parties are in power. Spain, Germany and Malta They are the others.

Their conservative opponents are expected to outpace Spain’s Socialists led by Pedro Sanchez and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats – Germany’s Christian Democrats and Spain’s Popular Party.

Schulz’s party has been steadily losing support since winning the 2021 federal election, and is now in a battle for second place with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Pedro Sánchez is in a better position due to the controversial amnesty agreement he concluded with Catalan pro-independence parties. But that also made him vulnerable to criticism from the People’s Party and the far-right Vox party.

For some left-wing opposition parties, the situation could end up much worse, as they face far-right overreach.

Centre-left parties have shifted in recent years away from traditional socialist ideas and towards more liberal policies, so they are now “very similar” to the centre-right, which is “more like the centre-right”, says Paul Zirka, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. It is equally pro-European, with similar positions on economic and climate policies.

The latest surveys indicate that most Europeans consider poverty, public health, the economy, defense and security of the EU among their most important concerns.

While the SPD manifesto promises to address these very issues, Professor Mark Lazar says it is too late for many voters, because the left failed to protect them when they had the chance.

As the left moved to the center in social and economic battles, the right and far right grew stronger, says Paul Zerka. The encirclement operations aimed to keep the more extreme parties at bay, then reinforced the perception that they, not the left, were the real opposition to the center.

Then the left began to champion issues such as gender, gay rights, or green politics: very popular among young urban voters, but less popular among working-class families.

“In many European countries, the center left is now seen as the wealthy progressive elite in the cities,” Zirka says.