Double Blues offers put Oilers’ 2024-25 roster in turmoil

The Edmonton Oilers appear to be aging rapidly at some key positions on the roster.

On July 1, the club added several proven, senior forwards who are older and likely to take up most of the playing time on the top three lines. That left Dylan Holloway, the youngest forward on the roster, in a potential backup role for next season.

Edmonton hasn’t done much on defense, but by letting Vincent Descharnais go in free agency, it’s made room for young prospect Philip Broberg.

The expectation for both men was that they would play key roles on a Stanley Cup-contending team in Edmonton.

That all changed Tuesday with a doubleheader from the St. Louis Blues.

Holloway and Broberg could be joining a new team by this time next week, and the Oilers appear to be in serious trouble. How bad is that problem?

What’s the problem?

Double playoffs at this time of year are rare and expensive for any team in the NHL.

This is both a talent issue and a math problem. The options are limited, and the drop in talent could be massive if the organization decides to release players.

Broberg and Holloway are two young players who will play key roles at affordable prices next season, with only position being in question.

Quoted from Blues Press Release“The offer to Broberg is a two-year contract at $4,580,917 per year, the maximum offer that requires a second-round pick as compensation” and “The offer to Holloway is a two-year contract at $2,290,457 per year, the maximum offer that requires a third-round pick as compensation.”

The Oilers are already over the salary cap (via BookpediaMatching the two offers would put them $7.225 million over the salary cap. Even with Evander Kane ($5.125 million average annual salary) on the long-term suspension list, the organization would have to give up another player on the roster.

The Oilers have some choices to make over the next week.

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What led the Blues to make an offer for Broberg and Holloway and why did the Oilers put themselves at risk?

What is the solution?

The team could match one or both offers, then deal with a player like Cody Cisse and count on Kane being out long-term for the 2024-25 season.

This works as long as Ken is on LTIR.

If Kane is selected to the long-term suspension list, it would save $5.125 million. If Corey Perry ($1.15 million), Josh Brown ($1 million) and Derek Ryan ($900,000) are selected, the organization would be able to meet the cap figure on opening night.

The problem? Edmonton will start the season with 19 players: two goalies, seven defensemen and 10 forwards.

That’s not enough for the team to be competitive (Edmonton will have one forward available instead of three on the fourth line).

If the club trades Ceci ($3.25 million) without any money back, this roster (Kane on LTIR) would be salary cap compliant with all the pieces needed to field a competitive team.

This team comes with an additional $1 million, meaning the team could carry an additional forward (Lynn Pederson, $775K) and start the year with 22 players on the roster.

Losing Ceci and replacing him with a combination of Joshua Brown and Troy Stecher isn’t ideal, and the organization probably doesn’t want to start the season that way.

When Kane is ready to return (estimates range from 12 weeks or more to most of the season), the Oilers will either have to make another move or send another player to LTIR.

The middle ground

The Oilers need to keep Perberg on the roster to improve year after year. His offer list is expensive for a reason. Edmonton has to match the offer list for the defenseman.

Holloway, a valuable player in his own right, may be sacrificed and replaced internally. The quality of the roster may be reduced but not completely compromised.

If new general manager Stan Bowman can reconcile Broberg and allow Holloway to become a member of the Blues, things could fall into place more logically.

The roster will see only minor changes. Mattias Janmark will move to left wing No. 3, Pederson could move to center No. 4, and the coaching staff will have to decide which of the two additional defenders (Brown or Stecher) will go to Bakersfield.

Cisse will remain on the team’s roster, giving the Oilers a veteran duo at first and third, with Broberg alongside Nurse at second.

It is the settlement that has the greatest meaning.

Bottom line

Edmonton has a week to make a decision, and a lot can happen in that time.

Things to look for include trading Ceci (a solid option), signing an RH defender for depth (Gustav Lindstrom is a worthy target) and management talking about young winger Matthew Savoie (who could eventually become a replacement for Holloway).

Kane’s injury

The club will have to decide on the offer before Kane’s injury is confirmed.

That opens the door to all sorts of scenarios (including a Ceci deal) unless the Oilers decide not to offer new contracts to Holloway and Broberg.

Why did this happen?

Many fans took to social media to criticize the club’s bid in the hours after the announcement. Many criticized the club’s massive free agent signings on July 1, while management waited to sign younger free agents until the club’s bid option was exercised.

It’s an understandable reaction, but that’s the Oilers’ business model. Edmonton’s management has used control of young players as a pressure tool for years.

It’s a weak model.

Consider the following:

• Leon Draisaitl was sent down to the juniors shortly before he qualified for the full season in 2014-15, but it didn’t have the desired effect. His agent (Mike Liut) used Draisaitl’s impressive playoff run in 2017 as a coup de grace, offering his client a great deal.

• Darnell Nurse’s contracts have always been at the lowest possible level, with two transfers leaving him a free agent. Fans see Nurse’s current contract (a huge one with a no-transfer clause) as being about the player, but history suggests that two managers (Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland) put it off until the player was in full possession of the cards.

• Surprisingly, the same situation is happening now with defender Evan Bouchard. Expect howls of anger when his next contract is negotiated, but the real problem is constantly avoiding paying full price until the player has all the cards in his hand.

Broberg and Holloway also spent time waiting in line, with Broberg’s frustrations mounting last fall (as The New York Times reported). The athlete(Daniel Nugent-Bowman).

The Oilers were surprised because buyouts are rare, and double buyouts only happen once in a very short period of time.

Some might argue that despite the obvious exposure (exacerbated by the free agent frenzy that led to fans’ delight on July 1) it was reasonable for management to expect no offer to come through.

It’s hard to find an Oilers fan who has a charitable mood regarding these decisions.

To be fair, since Jeff Jackson took over as CEO in the summer of 2023, the organization has made impressive achievements in player recruitment.

Tuesday was the day of reckoning. All these nice additions may come at a price.

The first challenge facing the new general manager is a big one — or rather, the first two. Can Bowman keep his young players, salvage the roster and come up with a healthy lineup for the 2024-25 season?

We are waiting.

(Photo by Philip Broberg: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)