October 31, 2024

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Cubs do not expect to be buyers on time.

Cubs do not expect to be buyers on time.

The Cubs’ deadline trajectory has been a topic of much discussion over the past few weeks, with the team sitting at or near the bottom of the National League Central but also within striking distance of the final National League wild card spot. They have ostensibly explored possibilities on both ends of the buy/sell spectrum, and have shown interest in Toronto’s Danny Jansen While he has also reportedly spoken with both the Yankees and Red Sox about the possibility of Jameson Taylor The Cubs lost their first two games after the All-Star break to the D-Bucks, who are now tied for the final wild-card spot, though they avoided a win in their overtime win Sunday.

While the Cubs are 3.5 games behind in the wild card chase, the latest report By Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic This suggests that the Chicago Cubs are not planning to buy players at next week’s trade deadline. However, this does not suggest any sort of high-profile quick sale for the Cubs. Chicago hopes to be competitive next year and is unlikely to part with players under its control unless it gets big-league-ready talent in return.

As for the list of players rented by the Cubs, there is not much that can be sold to other clubs. drew smillie He has an earned run average of 2.92 in 37 relief innings, but he also has allowed 10.2 percent of his opponents to walk and is playing on a contract that other teams might want to avoid. Smyly is due the remaining balance of his $8.5 million salary for the current season (about $3.2 million) plus $2.5 million to buy out a $10 million mutual option for the 2025 season.

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right Kyle Hendrix He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season but won’t attract any interest with a $16 million salary and a 6.69 performance rating (unless the Cubs eat his entire contract, perhaps). Hector Neres He has a 3.74 earned run average and a 24.2% strikeout rate in 33 2/3 innings — but he’s also allowed 16.1% of his opponents to walk, the worst rate of his career. Neris is playing for a $9 million salary, and his $9 million club option will convert to a player option if he appears in 24 more games this season (60 total). That will turn off any potential interested parties. Cody Bellinger He could become a free agent at the end of the season, but he is on the injured list with a broken finger, and the two exit clauses in his three-year contract would have made him very difficult to trade anyway.

The Athletic’s report at least raises the possibility of speculation that starting offers will be heard. justin steeleDespite three or more seasons of club dominance remaining, the price is expected to be high or even higher than what is required for the city champion. garrett crochet (Two years left of club dominance) and the American League’s Cy Young Award leader Tarek Skopal (The latter is not expected to be traded.) There’s no reason to believe the Cubs will trade Steele outright, but listening to see if someone will make an offer Juan SotoThat last year’s fifth-place NL Cy Young winner received an award similar to the one he won is reasonable enough.

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As for Taillon, it would make sense to move him even if the team doesn’t envision a large-scale sale. When signing any free agent to a long-term deal, teams are more interested in the first two years of said contract. The 2025-26 seasons will be Taillon’s 33- and 34-year-old campaigns. He’ll earn $18 million per season on his slightly overburdened $68 million contract. Moving him would free up some money to spend on a younger pitcher this offseason — or perhaps another area of ​​need entirely.

The Cubs take over Steele, Shota Imanaga, Javier Asaad, Ben Brown, Hayden Wisniewski And Jordan Weeks Until at least the 2027 season. Expectations Kid Horton And Brandon Birdsell The player market is growing. There is some depth to work with, and a deal for Taillon would bring in talent, eliminate future player salaries, and reduce future luxury tax liabilities. Taillon won’t get as much quality as Steele for a number of reasons (age, salary, overall talent level), but there aren’t a ton of weapons available, so the Cubs can take advantage of that shortfall and see what the market holds.

It’s also worth emphasizing that most teams’ plans remain highly fluid at this time of year. While teams facing gaps of eight, nine, 10 or more games in their postseason bids will certainly focus on selling (just as clubs in the opposite situation will primarily focus on adding), roughly half of the teams in baseball are in relative purgatory between those two ends of the spectrum. There are currently three teams tied for third in the National League’s wild-card slot (the Mets, D-Bucks and Padres), and five others within four games of that final spot—including the Cubs. In the American League, four teams are within six games of the final wild-card slot.

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For example, if the Chicago Cubs are on a six- or seven-game winning streak starting today, they should be more open to adding some pieces. That’s especially true since their next three games are against the division-leading Brewers. But such a winning streak is always elusive, and it’s worth noting that right now, Chicago doesn’t view itself as a team that will trade lower-caliber minor league talent for some marginal rental upgrades. Time will tell if the players on the field can push the front office to take a more aggressive stance, but for now, the Cubs seem likely to have a relatively quiet deadline.