Boris Johnson will face a vote of confidence on Monday

The prime minister’s approval ratings were falling, and there was a growing feeling among some parts of his ruling conservative party that he was becoming a burden. The party faces a tough parliamentary by-election later this month.

A Downing Street spokesman said Monday that Johnson “welcomes the opportunity to bring his case to MPs”.

“Tonight is an opportunity to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move forward, implementing the people’s priorities,” the spokesperson said, adding that Johnson would “remind [the MPs] That when they unite and focus on issues that matter to the electorate, there will be no tremendous political power.”

Johnson’s supporters have rushed to his defense in recent weeks, arguing that it is not the time to launch a leadership contest given the country’s many crises – including the war in Ukraine.

Several of Johnson’s top ministers have already declared their support for him. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said she stands firmly behind Johnson. “The PM has 100% support in today’s vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him,” Truss wrote on Twitter.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak also tweeted that he would support Johnson in the vote and “will continue to support him as we focus on growing the economy, tackling the cost of living and clearing Covid issues.”

Under Tory rules, if MPs wanted to get rid of their leader, they would submit a secret letter of no-confidence to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee, a group of House members who do not hold government positions. The operation is obscure – the messages are kept secret and the chairman, Graham Brady, doesn’t even reveal how many messages have been delivered.

When 15% of conservative lawmakers have given letters, a vote of confidence is taken among all conservative lawmakers. The current composition of the House of Commons means that at least 54 MPs have submitted letters of no confidence.

Monday’s vote defeat would effectively end the career of one of Britain’s leading post-war politicians. In this case, he is likely to remain prime minister until a new conservative candidate is elected to lead the party; At that point Johnson was informing the Queen of his intention to resign as Prime Minister and recommending that everyone who won the contest be invited to form a government.

If Johnson comfortably wins the vote, he could emerge stronger within his party, which has struggled to identify a rival politician to challenge Johnson in recent months.

By contrast, a narrow victory would leave Johnson’s reputation dwindling even if he did not overthrow his government. The Conservatives face a parliamentary by-election in late June after two of their MPs were forced to resign amid their own scandals – disappointing results in that election could put more pressure on Johnson ahead of a national general election expected in 2024.

Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May, was the last incumbent British leader to face a vote of no-confidence from their party. May narrowly survived that vote, which was called up amid months of chaos over her doomed Brexit deal, but she eventually quit months later.

The party scandal was not the first to damage Johnson’s reputation. He has been accused of accepting improper donations to fund the renovation of his Downing Street apartment, while his government has been accused of handing over lucrative Covid-19 contracts to people with links to the Conservative Party. Johnson’s spokesman insisted he “acted according to the rules at all times”.