Anthony Blinken is in Beijing on a mission to repair fractured US-China relations

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in Beijing on a highly anticipated mission to reinvigorate US-China relations, which were sparked this year by the flight of an alleged Chinese spy balloon over North America.

Blinken will be the first secretary of state to visit China since 2018, a reflection of Beijing’s strict coronavirus pandemic lockdown, as well as how relations between the United States and China have sunk to their lowest point in decades.

His trip is intended to follow up on a meeting between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Bali in November, when the leaders agreed on the need to create a “floor” within the relationship. But the plan was derailed in February when Blinken canceled a visit to China because of the balloon.

Relationships have been on a downward trajectory in recent years. The United States is wary of Chinese military activity around Taiwan and its refusal to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, while Beijing accuses Washington of trying to contain its ambitions by imposing export controls on advanced technology and expanding security arrangements with regional allies.

The relationship reached its lowest point after the alleged Chinese spy balloon passed over sensitive military sites before the United States shot it down in February.

Over the past month, there have been signs of improvement. The Financial Times reported that CIA Director Bill Burns secretly visited China in May. In the same month, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Wang Yi, the chief Chinese foreign policy official, in Vienna. Biden later said at the G7 meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, that he expected an imminent “thaw” in relations.

Relationships are now “in a place where we can advance Bali’s agenda,” said one senior US official.

“That’s what this trip is about,” the official said, and warned that Blinken was “very clear” that progress would be “tough” to make.

This journey is a reconnection, not a breakthrough. “He needs to stop the free deterioration of relations and find a basis for stability,” said Evan Medeiros, an expert at Georgetown University in China. “Both countries need and want the meeting not to be bad, but it is too early to talk about success.”

Daniel Kreitenbrink, the State Department’s top official for East Asia, said Blinken had three goals, including the need for communication channels to ensure “competition does not veer into conflict.”

Dennis Wilder, the CIA’s former top China expert, said the visit would end a period of “deep acrimony” but would do little to address “fundamental mistrust”.

The Chinese remain upset by Secretary Blinken’s postponement of his visit earlier this year and his public warnings to Beijing at the Munich Security Conference. [in February] About potentially deadly Chinese assistance to Russia.

Blinken will hold two days of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and other officials. It is unclear if he will meet Xi, who was due to see him in February.

Wilder said Xi’s refusal to meet with Blinken would be a “strong signal” that Beijing remains wary of US moves to “de-risk” its economy from China, including restricting the latter’s advanced technology development.

One Chinese scholar said Blinken’s trip would only be doomed to success if he met Xi, adding that it would be a “contempt” to see Chen or Wang, who are not as powerful as the US secretary of state.

While US officials have said it has been time since the balloon incident for high-level meetings to resume, the relationship is still on hold.

The Financial Times reported earlier that China was reluctant to grant Blinken a visit due to concerns that the FBI would release the results of an investigation into the balloon, which China claims was a weather observation vessel. In a letter cited by the Financial Times story, 19 Republican senators this week urged Biden not to give in to Chinese efforts to “force the United States into silence” and to release the FBI’s findings “immediately.”

Raja Krishnamurthy, the top Democrat on the China House Committee, said he had reviewed some material from the FBI related to the balloon, which he called “eye-opening”.

“for them [China] Let’s call it a weather balloon. . . Not a great look.”

Asked on Saturday if the trip could help ease tensions, Biden said Xi did not know what the balloon was doing. “It was more awkward than it was intended,” Biden said, adding that he hopes to meet Xi “over the next several months.”

Mike Gallagher, the Republican chairman of the China House Committee, told the Financial Times that the president’s comments were “naive and misleading”.

“We cannot mistake the CCP’s recent violations of our sovereignty and increased aggression for a mere coincidence,” he said.

Some analysts said China may want a “tactical pause” in the tensions to address its ailing economy, which is struggling to recover from tough Covid controls.

US restrictions on exports and Chinese moves to tighten anti-espionage laws and crack down on foreign advice also hurt investor sentiment.

But in a warning to those hoping for a quick snowballing improvement, China’s foreign ministry on Friday dealt a heavy blow to the United States, accusing Washington of claiming it is constantly seeking “contacts” with “harming China’s interests.”

In Washington, the Biden administration is also facing criticism from Republicans, including Gallagher, who has called its rapprochement efforts with Beijing “zombie engagement.” This week, he told CNBC that approaching China with olive branches to urge participation was an “invitation to aggression.”

But Krishnamurthy, his Democratic counterpart, said high-level meetings could help stabilize relations and that there was a need to clearly communicate to Beijing how its aggressive behavior could “lead to escalation”.

“Mike might love zombie movies…but it’s really important that we have these conversations, do our best to be clear and listen carefully at the same time and then try to find ways to discourage aggression.”

He follows Dimitri Sevastopoulou on Twitter