America’s Most Brilliant Housing Bubble, January Update: Now Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Seattle, San Diego are sinking the fastest

This takes time: Home prices in the San Francisco Bay Area have fallen faster from the peak than they did from the peak.

by Wolf Richter to Wolf Street.

Housing Bubble 2 continues to deflate relentlessly, no matter what data set we look at. Today we got S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index For November, it is a three-month moving average of home sales that were entered into the public records in September, October and November, largely mirroring deals made in August through October.

Prices in all 20 metros in the index are down from the previous month, and all of them have continued their decline from peaks last spring or summer.

The San Francisco Bay Area is the leader here. The single-family home index fell 14% from the peak in May and turned negative year-on-year, after falling faster in the six months since the peak in May than it did in the six months through May.

The Case-Shiller index differs from the average price indexes. It uses the “sales pairs” method, to compare sales in the current month to when the same homes were sold previously. Price changes are weighted based on how long it has been since the previous sale occurred, adjustments are made for home improvement, and other factors (methodology). The Sales Pairs method makes the Case-Shiller indicator a more reliable indicator than average price indicators, but it lags behind for months.

Median price indices reflect the price in the middle of all homes sold that month, and so can be affected by change in the mix of homes being sold, which is a big problem when there’s a drastic change in the market, like in 2022. But it’s more recent.

Average price indices fell much more. Average price across the United States for all types of homes sold December is down 11.3% from the peak in JuneAccording to the National Association of Realtors, while today the Case-Shiller National Index (the moving average for the three months through November) is down only 3.6% from the peak.

Average price in the San Francisco Bay Area It fell 30% in December from its insane peak in March, and decreased by 10% year-on-year. Today’s Case-Shiller Bay Area Index (which reflects home sales in September, October and November) is down 14.4% from the peak, and down 1.6% year-over-year.

monthly basisToday, the Case-Shiller Index is down again in all 20 central regions it covers. The largest monthly declines occurred in:

• Phoenix: -1.9%
• Las Vegas: -1.7%
• San Francisco: -1.6%
• Seattle: -1.5%
• San Diego: -1.4%
• Dallas: -1.1%
• Tampa: -1.0%

from their topswhich ranges from May to July, home prices fell the most in:

• San Francisco Bay Area: -14.3%
• Seattle metro: -13.5%
• Metro San Diego: -9.9%
• Metro Phoenix: -7.7%
• Denver metro: -7.5%
• Los Angeles Metro: -7.4%
• Las Vegas metro: -7.0%.
• Dallas Metro: -6.6%

San Francisco Bay Area: The San Francisco Index covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

• Month by month: -1.6%.
• From the peak in May: -14.4%.
• Compared to last year: -1.6%.
• lowest since June 2021.
• Prices fell faster than they used to be:
  • Down in six months from the peak in May: -56.8 points
  • Up in the six months to peak in May: +53.4 points.

in the Seattle metro.

• Month by month: -1.5%.
• From the peak in May: -13.5%.
• On an annual basis: +1.5%.
• Down in six months from the peak in May: -55.9 points
• Up in the six months to peak in May: +61.4 points.

San Diego metro:

• Month by month: -1.4%.
• From the peak in May: -9.9%.
• On an annual basis: +4.8%.
• Descent in six months from the peak in May: -42.5 points
• Up in the six months to peak in May: +60.1 points.

Metro Phoenix:

• Month by month: -1.9%.
• From the peak in June: -7.7%.
• On an annual basis: +6.3%
• Descent in five months from the peak in June: -26.4 points
• Up in the five months to the peak in June: +36.1 points.

Denver Metro:

• Month by month: -0.8%.
• From the peak in May: -7.5%.
• On an annual basis: +6.1%.
• Down in six months from the peak in May: -24.8 points
• Up in the six months to peak in May: +42.6 points.

Los Angeles Metro:

• Month by month: -0.9%.
• From the peak in May: -7.4%.
• On an annual basis: +4.4%.
• Down in six months from the peak in May: -31.2 points
• Up in the six months to peak in May: +47.8 points.

Las Vegas metro:

• Month by month: -1.7%.
• From the peak in July: -7.0%.
• On an annual basis: +6.6%

• Descent in four months from the peak in July: -21.1 points
• Up in the four months to peak in July: +25.5 points.

Dallas Metro:

• Month by month: -1.1%.
• From the peak in June: -6.6%.
• On an annual basis: +10.9%
• Descent in five months from the peak in June: -20.3 points
• Up in the five months to the peak in June: +39.4 points.

Portland Metro:

• Month by month: -0.9%.
• From the peak in May: -6.1%.
• On an annual basis: +3.9%.
• Down in six months from the peak in May: -20.9 points
• Up in the six months to the peak in May: +33.1 points.

Boston metro:

• Month by month: -0.7%.
• From the peak in June: -4.6%.
• On an annual basis: +6.9%

• Down in five months from the June peak: -14.6 points
• Up in the five months to the peak in June: +30.2 points.

Washington, D.C. Metro:

• Month by month: -0.3%.
• From the peak in June: -3.9%.
• On an annual basis: +5.3%

• Descent in five months from the peak in June: -12.1 points
• Up in the five months to the peak in June: +22.4 points.

Tampa Metro:

• Month by month: -1.0%.
• From the peak in July: -3.1%
• On an annual basis: +16.9%

• Down in four months from the July peak: -11.8 points
• Up in the four months to peak in July: +31.4 points.

Miami Metro:

• Month by month: -0.2%.
• From the peak in July: -2.3%
• Compared to last year: +18.4%

• Down in four months from the July peak: -9.6 points
• Up in the four months to peak in July: +37.8 points.

in the New York metro:

• Month by month: -0.1%.
• From the peak in July: -1.6%
• YoY: +8.1%

• Down in four months from the peak in July: -4.3 points
• Up in the four months to peak in July: +12.1 points.

For the Miami Metro in November, the Case-Shiller index was valued at 400. All Case-Shiller indices are set at 100 for 2000. This means that despite the recent decline, home prices in Miami have increased 300% since 2000. This makes it #1 in price increases since 2000 in the Case-Shiller index.

Los Angeles and San Diego at various times held the top spot, but prices fell faster in them than in Miami. The index value in Los Angeles fell to 392 and in San Diego to 385.

In metro New York, with an index value of 272, home price inflation since 2000 has reached 172%. This makes it the lower end of the more fascinating housing bubbles.

In the six remaining metropolitan areas in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index, home price inflation since 2000 has been slightly lower, and they don’t qualify for this group. Housing prices in each of them have fallen for several months. In today’s November index, prices are down the most month-to-month: Chicago (-0.6%), Charlotte (-0.7%), Minneapolis (-0.7%), Atlanta (-0.6), Detroit (-0.4%), and Cleveland (-0.4%). -0.7%).

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