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The fate of two NASA astronauts who have been stranded aboard the International Space Station for nearly 80 days due to problems with their Boeing Starliner spacecraft may soon become clear.
The space agency said it will hold a formal review on Saturday to determine whether Boeing’s Starliner is deemed safe enough to return home with its crew — or whether SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft will have to step in to save the day.
NASA said it will announce its decision after the review is complete on Saturday. A news conference is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, or “about an hour” after the review is complete, according to an email from NASA. However, the space agency routinely postpones news conferences if discussions take longer than expected.
The Starliner spacecraft, which carried astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to the space station in early June, suffered setbacks due to a helium leak and the sudden failure of thrusters during the initial stage of its first crewed test flight. Engineers spent weeks trying to better understand the problems, and Boeing said on Aug. 2 that it had “remained high” confidence that the spacecraft would be able to return Williams and Wilmore to Earth.
But NASA revealed during a news conference on August 7 that discussions within the space agency about the safety of the Starliner capsule had evolved — prompting the federal agency to think more seriously about sending astronauts home aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, which has carried about a dozen crewed missions into space since 2020.
SpaceX was already scheduled to fly a routine mission to the International Space Station, carrying four astronauts as part of standard crew rotations aboard the orbiting laboratory. But the mission, called Crew-9, could now be reconfigured to carry two astronauts instead of four.
The change will leave two seats open for Williams and Wilmore to fill on the Crew-9 spacecraft homeward. The two astronauts will also officially join the Crew-9 spacecraft team, becoming part of the official mission. With the change, Williams and Wilmore will remain on-site for an additional six months — the duration of a routine mission to the space station.
Reassigning the duo to Crew-9 could push their return to February 2025 at the earliest.
In this scenario, Starliner would return empty. NASA would have to decide whether the data Starliner collected on its mission was enough to give the space agency the confidence to officially certify Starliner for human spaceflight — a step that would prepare the vehicle for routine flights into orbit.
Five of the Starliner’s 28 reactive thrust engines failed during the first phase of Boeing’s test mission. All but one of the engines were eventually repaired.
While Williams and Wilmore had expected to spend only eight days in space, their stay aboard the orbiting laboratory was actually extended by nearly two months as engineers on the ground worked to better understand the thruster problems.
Officials said they were able to recreate how the thrusters deteriorated in space during flight through ground tests. Boeing said the likely root cause was heat buildup inside the thrusters that could cause the seals to bulge, restricting fuel flow.
Separately, the helium leak problems may be the result of seals that have deteriorated due to exposure to fuel vapor, according to comments by Mark Nappi, Boeing’s commercial crew program manager, on July 25.
However, NASA is still struggling to reach a consensus on how these issues will affect astronauts’ return from space — and how much risk these problems might pose.
The uncertainty surrounding the level of risk is why the agency may turn to SpaceX and its Crew Dragon spacecraft to step in.
NASA has repeatedly said that the possibility of SpaceX interfering highlights how the space agency deliberately designed its commercial crew program — under which both Starliner and Crew Dragon were developed — to allow each spacecraft to serve as a backup for the other.
“We’re in a bit of a new situation here and we have multiple options,” Ken Bowersox, associate administrator for NASA’s Space Operations Directorate, said on Aug. 7. “This is something we’re going to have to deal with in the future — we may find ourselves in a situation where we need to bring back a SpaceX Dragon crew or a Soyuz crew on a Starliner.
“That’s why we want multiple vehicles — so we have that option,” Bowersox added.
However, the federal agency funded SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft and Boeing’s Starliner at the same time in 2014. Crew Dragon has already been in service for four years, while the Starliner program is hundreds of millions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule.
Boeing’s development process was also riddled with errors.
For example, the first Starliner test mission—launched in 2019 without a crew—failed in orbit, leaving the flight significantly shorter than expected. The spacecraft ultimately did not dock with the International Space Station as intended, a result that turned out to be a symptom of a myriad of software problems, including a coding error that set the internal clock back by 11 hours.
A second uncrewed flight test in May 2022 revealed additional software issues, and mission teams addressed problems with some of the vehicle’s thrusters. However, the root cause of the engine problem that derailed that crewed mission two years ago has been overlooked.
Whether Starliner will be certified after its return to Earth is likely to be a contentious issue, especially if the spacecraft can’t get Williams and Wilmore home and doesn’t perform as intended during reentry — the most dangerous phase of the mission. The autonomous vehicle will have to use its engines to steer itself precisely as it plunges back into Earth’s thick atmosphere. The pressure and friction are expected to heat the exterior of the craft to about 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit (1,650 degrees Celsius).
The Starliner’s parachutes should then deploy without a hitch and slow the spacecraft before the airbags deploy to expand and soften the landing.
If the Starliner capsule is eventually certified, it could join SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft in making routine trips to the space station to replace personnel. Currently, such trips occur about every six months.
If the spacecraft is denied certification, it would be another blow to Boeing’s already badly damaged reputation. Failure to meet the target could cost the company millions of dollars more — on top of the roughly $1.5 billion it has already recorded in losses on the Starliner program.
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