Did Labour really find a bigger financial mess than it expected?

The first thing to highlight is that we already have a good idea of Country Book StatusThe Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) publishes this data twice a year – and we got another full breakdown last November.

We also knew during the election campaign that difficult decisions lay ahead.

Treasury insiders claim there have been surprises since they took charge.

The first reason is that public sector payroll deals are likely to cost much more than expected.

The previous government budgeted for a 2% lower settlement, so funding the much higher deal would cost billions of pounds, sources say. If a similar increase occurred in the public sector, it would cost billions more.

Although some of the money was wages for government employees who would have worked for the ministry anyway, sources say much of it was operating costs that were only discovered after the new government reviewed its books.

The Department of Health and Social Care has also warned that hospital building programmes in England are costing far more than they are budgeted for.

Sources also said there were additional spending commitments announced after the autumn statement that needed to be paid off. We expect to hear about “in-year pressures” – additional spending that needs to be allocated immediately.

The Treasury plans to release a full, detailed report on Monday, explaining where it believes it has found a “black hole.”

At this point we will be able to scrutinize the accounts and see what is really new.

But it was known before the elections that whoever came to power next would face major challenges.

Rachel Reeves began talking about the difficult legacy long before polling day.

“We know things are very bad… and you don’t need to win an election to know that.”

It’s not just about the economy.

Ministers point to other areas where they say things are worse than they expected – such as health services, prisons, the environment, and more.

It is true that there are significant challenges to the problem of overcrowding. Senior ministers in the previous government demanded action – but these measures were not approved before the elections.

But was it a surprise to the incoming government?

Justice Ministry sources say the system is closer to a “catastrophe” than they thought, and they have little time to try to solve the problem.

The picture is not a complete surprise, even if some specific details may have become clearer.

So let’s get back to politics, because a lot of this is about politics.

The new government is trying to frame the debate over the next few years. It wants to claim that it has inherited such a tragic legacy that it will have to do some deeply unpopular things.

He wants you to blame the Tories – not Labour.

Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt says it’s all nonsense, warning that Labour is paving the way for undisclosed tax rises during the election campaign.

However, the Labour Party’s strategy is not new.

The Conservatives did something similar when they won power in 2010, arguing that Labour in power had caused the economy to collapse and left the government cash-strapped – which was why austerity was necessary.

It’s an argument conservatives still make today.

Remember, the Labour Party in power makes its own choices.

She pledged not to increase income tax, national insurance, VAT and corporation tax.

The government said it would not borrow additional money for day-to-day spending. It is likely to opt for higher salaries for public sector workers, in line with recommendations from wage bodies.

So it’s likely that the government has found some surprises that make its life a little more difficult.

But it also tries to shape the political narrative and set the stage for what comes next.