French election: Far-right leads in first round in blow to Macron, forecast

CNN
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The far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen came first in the first round of the election. France Initial projections showed that Sunday’s parliamentary elections would bring her closer to power than ever before.

After an unusually high turnout, the National Front bloc topped with 34% of the vote, while the leftist New Popular Front coalition came in second place with 28.1%, and President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition fell to third place with 20.3%, according to preliminary estimates by the Institute. Ipsos.

While the National Rally party appears on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly, it may fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, suggesting that France could be heading toward a hung parliament and more political uncertainty.

Expectations indicate that after the second round of voting next Sunday, the National Front will win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat House of Representatives – a staggering increase compared to its 88 seats in the outgoing Parliament. The National League was expected to gain between 125 and 165 seats, with the group falling by between 70 and 100 seats.

The election, called by Macron after his party suffered a defeat to the National Front in European Parliament elections earlier this month, could leave him to serve out the remaining three years of his presidential term in an awkward partnership with a prime minister from an opposition party.

The National Front party erupted in celebration in the northern town of Henin-Beaumont as the results were announced, but Marine Le Pen was quick to stress that Sunday’s election would be decisive.

“Democracy has spoken, and the French people have put the National Rally and its allies first – and have practically wiped out the Macronist bloc,” she told a cheering crowd, adding: “Nothing has been won – and the second round will be decisive.”

In a speech at the party’s headquarters in Paris, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old party leader who will become prime minister in the future, echoed Le Pen’s message.

“The vote that will take place next Sunday is one of the most decisive elections in the entire history of the Fifth Republic,” Bardella said.

In upbeat speeches ahead of the first round, Bardella said he would reject a minority government, where the FN would need the votes of allies to pass laws. If the FN fails to secure an absolute majority and Bardella stays true to his word, Macron may then have to look to a hard-left prime minister, or elsewhere entirely, to form a government of technocrats.

With an unprecedented number of seats going to a three-way runoff, a week of political negotiations will now begin, as centrist and left-wing parties will decide whether or not to stand down in individual seats to block the nationalist and anti-immigration National Front – which has been a pariah for some time. Long in French politics – of winning a majority.

When the National Rally — under its former name, the National Front — performed strongly in the first round of votes in the past, left-wing and centrist parties have previously united to prevent them from taking office, under a principle known as “encirclement.”

After Jean-Marie Le Pen—Marin’s father and leader of the National Front for decades—unexpectedly defeated Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential election, the Socialists threw their weight behind center-right candidate Jacques Chirac, handing him a landslide victory in the second round of the election.

In an attempt to deny the National Front a majority, the National Front — the left-wing coalition formed earlier this month — has promised to withdraw all of its candidates who came in third in the first round.

“Our instructions are clear – no more vote, no more seat for the National Rally,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the France Insoumise party – the largest party in the Free France party – told supporters on Sunday.

Mélenchon added, “We have a long week ahead of us, and each person will make his decision with his conscience, and this decision will determine, in the long run, the future of our country and the fate of each one of us.”

Marine Tondillier, leader of the Green Party – a more moderate part of the National Labor Party – made a personal call for Macron to step down in certain seats to deprive the National Front of a majority.

“We are counting on you: withdraw if you finish third in a three-way race, and if you do not qualify for the second round, call on your supporters to vote for a candidate who supports Republican values,” she said.

Macron’s allies also called on their supporters to prevent the far right from taking power, but they warned against giving their votes to the controversial man Mélenchon.

Macron’s protégé and outgoing prime minister Gabriel Attal urged voters to prevent the National Rally from winning a majority, but said Mélenchon’s France Insoumise party was “preventing a credible alternative” to the far-right government.

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, another Macron ally, said: “Votes should be cast not only for National Rally candidates, but also for non-submissive French candidates, with whom we disagree on basic principles.”

But it’s unclear whether tactical voting can prevent the National Rally from winning a majority. In Sunday’s vote, the National Rally won support in places that would have been unimaginable until recently. In the 20th electoral district of the Nord department, an industrial area, Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel was defeated in the first round by a National Rally candidate with no previous political experience. The Communists have held the seat since 1962.

Macron’s decision to call early elections — France’s first since 1997 — came as a surprise to the country and even to his closest allies. Sunday’s vote came three years ahead of schedule and just three weeks after Macron’s Ennahda party was trounced by the National Front in European Parliament elections.

Macron has pledged to serve out the remainder of his final presidential term, which runs until 2027, but now faces the prospect of having to appoint a prime minister from an opposition party – a rare arrangement known as “cohabitation”.

The French government has little trouble passing laws when the president and the majority in parliament belong to the same party. When they don’t, things can grind to a halt. While the president sets the country’s foreign, European and defense policy, the parliamentary majority is responsible for passing domestic laws, such as pensions and taxes.

But these powers can overlap, potentially pushing France into a constitutional crisis. For example, Bardella has ruled out sending troops to help Ukraine resist a Russian invasion—an idea floated by Macron—and said he would not allow Kiev to use French military equipment to strike targets inside Russia. It is unclear who would prevail in such disputes, where the line between domestic and foreign policy is often blurred.

A far-right government could lead to a financial and constitutional crisis. The National Rally has pledged to spend lavishly – from rolling back Macron’s pension reforms to cutting taxes on fuel, gas and electricity – at a time when France’s budget may be subject to a brutal cut by Brussels.

With the fiscal deficit one of the highest in the eurozone, France may need to embark on a period of austerity to avoid falling into the trap of new fiscal rules approved by the European Commission. But if the Conservative Party’s spending plans are implemented, they will send France’s deficit skyrocketing – a prospect that has spooked bond markets and led to warnings of a “Liz Truss-style financial crisis”, a reference to the country’s shortest female prime minister. In the history of British service.

In a brief statement issued Sunday evening, Macron said the high turnout showed “the desire of French voters to clarify the political situation” and called on his supporters to rally for the second round.

“In front of the national assembly, the time has come for a broad gathering, clearly democratic and Republican, for the second round,” he said.