Online record discounts are coming this holiday season

New York
CNN Business
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Shoppers will be online progress Record sales are in store this holiday season as retailers try to entice inflation-weary consumers to buy, according to forecasts released Thursday by Adobe Analytics. The company expects the strategy to work, with online holiday sales up about 5% compared to last year.

Adobe said in its annual holiday forecast that retailers are preparing to offer up to 35% off listed prices this holiday season, with the biggest discounts applied to toys, electronics and clothing.

The company expects consumers to seize these deals and spend aggressively even if there are concerns about them Rising prices And the health of the The economy continues to slow.

Consumers will likely spend $221.8 billion online shopping between November 1 and the end of the year, according to Adobe. This represents strong growth of 4.8% year-on-year, representing an acceleration of 3.5% growth in 2022.

So what will people buy? Adobe says this season’s best sellers will include LEGO Minifigures, Kanoodle 3D, Barbie the Movie products, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series

Adobe said discounts on games are peaking at 35% of listed prices, which is more than the peak of 34% discounts offered last year.

Other online categories expected to receive deep discounts include electronics (up to 30%), apparel (up to 25%), sporting goods (up to 24%), televisions (up to 22%), and furniture and bedding (up to 11%) ). ). All of which are deeper cuts than last year.

The discounts are also expected to arrive earlier than in the past, with Adobe saying discounts of up to 18% will start as early as next week as Amazon holds a sale The second Prime Day event.

Consumers continue to turn to increasingly popular buy now, pay later options like Affirm and PayPal offerings An alternative to credit cards.

Buy now, pay later is expected to drive a record $17 billion in online spending this holiday season, up 17% from 2022, Adobe said.

Americans are also doing more and more holiday shopping (and shopping in general) on smartphones and tablets.

Just over half (51.2%) of all online spending this holiday season is expected to be spent on mobile devices, which could mark the first time mobile will overtake desktop.

It’s important to note that shopping numbers, like the Adobe report and the government’s retail sales numbers, are not adjusted for inflation.

High prices can skew shopping numbers when not adjusted for inflation. For example, the Ministry of Commerce Recently reported that retail sales rose 0.6% Between July and August. But given that consumer prices rose 0.5% during that period, real (inflation-adjusted) retail sales were barely positive at 0.1% growth.

However, unlike the rest of the economy, where prices have risen extraordinarily quickly, online prices are falling and have been so consistently over the past year. In fact, last month saw The largest annual decline in three yearsAccording to Adobe.

This means that Adobe’s 2023 holiday shopping forecast for strong sales growth will indicate a real increase in demand from consumers.