The Panthers offer the Maple Leafs a lesson, just not one they want to hear

Let me know if any of this sounds familiar.

There is a very skilled team, especially up front, and they are coming up with an excellent regular season. The blue line can be shaky and goalkeeping is a question mark, but when things are going right they can outgrow those problems. However, they are still battling the ghosts of a long nearly impossible drought without picking up a series win. Last season they lost to the Lightning in the first round, despite home ice. But things are different this year. They finally broke through and won their first innings in forever, capping it off with a dramatic overtime victory on the road in Game 6. The drought was over. It’s different this time.

And then they were easily eliminated in the second round, losing a short series in which they didn’t stay at all. They’re right back to square one, or worse.

Obviously, this is the 2022-23 Maple Leafs. But it’s also the 2021-22 Panthers.

It all matches – every word of it. The similarities are almost unsettling. And maybe that’s good news for the miserable Maple Leafs fans of the moment. Because as painful as last year’s exit was for the Panthers, they are now in the Eastern Conference Final. Hell, they might even be favorites for the Stanley Cup. What a difference a year can make. there is hope. The leopards are the proof.

So how do you do that?

This will be the multi-million dollar question in Toronto this summer. Fortunately, the Panthers are out there, and provide a blueprint. The question is whether this is what the Leafs want to look into.

How did the leopards do it? Well, let’s talk about what they didn’t do.

They didn’t return it. They didn’t stay on track. They did not swear an unwavering allegiance to the core, nor did they fall upon themselves to preemptively crush any thoughts of impending changes before they could even begin. They didn’t talk about a big game about the results being unacceptable, while also making it clear that nothing significant would ever be different.

Instead, the 2022 Cheetahs kicked off their summer with a controversial coach change, highlighting it with one of the biggest signings in recent history. Nobody was focused on draft picks, projections, or depth around the edges. They exchanged key pieces of the heart. And in hindsight, they won the Matthew Tkachuk deal, and seem to have lost the memo we all got about how it’s absolutely impossible to do that in the NHL today.

To borrow a cliché, change the culture. She actually did it, rather than just muttering about it.

And maybe that offers some hope to frustrated Toronto fans, because the Maple Leafs can still do that, too. Then again, they could have done it in 2020. They should have done it in 2021. By 2022, we all knew the drill. We will now see if the powers that be have a chance to make the same call again.

Change is coming to Toronto, we’re told. This time, there is no avoiding it. They just couldn’t run it again again, not after the supposed postseason breakthrough that saw them go five-and-six, outrunning much of the first round and crucial stretches of the second.

Their fans would be forgiven if they believed it when they saw it.

After all, staying on the track was the mantra for the Maple Leafs during the Kyle Dubas era. Since Dubas infamously promised “we can and we will,” he’s been dedicated to staying the course and avoiding a major move that might shake a low-achieving team out of a state of near-permanent complacency. Dupas slammed all you like, but he was consistent; He has always supported his team, believing in their core and vision even when no one else seems to. He did it with his actions, or not. But just as much, he did it with his words, in his end-of-season press conferences, which are an annual exercise in managing expectations. Don’t expect a big change. Don’t expect big fluctuations. We can (hang up the phone before it rings) and we will (not call you back).

And while those reactions to “bring it back” were frustrating to some fans, many others supported it, even if grudgingly. After all, we’re told, he was choosing the only path available to him. You can’t just go out and make big changes to a disappointing team, not in this age. Not without making everything worse. It’s very difficult. be realistic.

Then there were the Panthers. After winning the Chiefs’ Trophy, something the Dubas Leafs never came close to, Florida decided an early exit wasn’t good enough, and they swung for the fences with big changes, both behind the bench and in the roster. Bill Zito hasn’t preemptively closed any doors. Instead, he found a way to unlock some of them.

And yes, there are some fair objections to the comparison. I’m too simplistic. (True. The season just ended, and there will be time for more detailed analysis in the coming weeks, mostly from people smarter than me.) I’m giving Zito credit for transforming the training I’ve spent all season shredding on. (Also true. I thought Paul Morris was a disaster. He proved me wrong.) Tkachuk’s position in Calgary was unusual, and guys like that aren’t available every summer. (Quite right. But it was available last year, and everyone knew that. Would the Maple Leafs care to give you a call?)

Most importantly, you can point out how all of the Panthers’ big moves almost ended in disaster. The team moved from first place overall into the playoff bubble, securing last place in the final week with just one point. Zito took a recipe that was working and tampered with it, almost getting blown up in his face. The only way you can classify the Panthers’ 2022 summer move as some kind of success rather than a reckless near disaster is to ignore six months of the regular season and base your judgment entirely on what happened a few weeks into the playoffs.

Which is… yeah, sure, let’s do it. Isn’t that the lesson the NHL continues to offer? The regular season serves one purpose and one goal only: to divide the league into 16 playoff teams, 16 misses. That’s it. You’re in or out, and old concepts like seeding or home ice advantage didn’t matter much a long time ago. Ask the Bruins how important the regular season is. It’s a six-month answer to one question – in or out? – And that’s it. Panthers entered. And now they are rolling.

And the papers came out, again, a full round later than usual. Which brings us to the final and perhaps loftiest objection to the suggestion of making any kind of major change to this team: You can’t. this is not possible. Sure, the Panthers did it, and it worked, but they’re the exception that proves the rule.

You hear this a lot from fans who remain loyal to this list. They’ll ask, what do you want to do, give Auston Matthews away? Trade Mitch Marner for pennies on the dollar? Flip William Nylander for a solid third defenceman? Strip everything down to the buttons and start over and be horrible again for who knows how long? Go back to the Nonis years, or Burke, or Ferguson, or even Ballard? Will this make you happy? Is all of this an improvement in some way?

And the answer is that there is no answer, because we don’t have to accept the premise. Yes, the NHL has a salary cap, and a fixed one at that. No, you can’t just call up the Oilers and ask for Connor McDavid. Of course, there will be risks, and any step may be a mistake. Certainly, Dubas or any other GM who sits down to rewrite this list will have a difficult task ahead of him.

Guess what – the hard jobs are worth doing. If the Maple Leafs think anything difficult isn’t worth trying, that probably says a lot about how they got to this point.

Bypass Tkachuk. This Panthers team includes Sam Bennett and Brandon Montour, two players who were acquired in mid-size deals with the intent of making them long-term pieces, not just short-term rentals. Another master piece is Game 3 OT hero Sam Reinhart, who came up with a big off-season move a few years ago. The Leafs, meanwhile, have been a revolving door of cheap veterans and short-term leases, and the only casual trade they’ve made in the past few years has been the Nazim Qadri deal, where Dubas waited until a key piece. It was at the lowest possible value before it was moved. It didn’t work out very well.

Other than that, the Leafs have had the same plan since 2016. Draft high, turn those draft picks into good players, pay them, and then…that’s it. That’s all you can do. You find your core, commit, and then hope it’s enough. If all available evidence indicates that it isn’t, well, there’s no choice but to keep hoping.

The Florida Panthers had a different philosophy. it worked. This does not mean that it will work for the Leafs or anyone else. But that means we should ignore anyone who tells us there is only one path here.

Sheldon Keefe has the highest regular season winning percentage in franchise history. So did Andrew Brunette. Mitch Marner is a star winger coming off the best season of his career. So was Jonathan Huberdeau. William Nylander is a value contract player who does much more than he gets paid and would be a good fit for any team in the league. So was Mackenzie and Jealousy. The Panthers decided they weren’t good enough, and they weren’t content to stay that way. Tough decisions can be made.

No, you don’t make a change just for the sake of making a change.

No, don’t give up on anyone.

No, it won’t be easy.

But also: No, it’s not impossible. Don’t believe anyone who tries to tell you otherwise. We’ve seen another team do that. And this team has just fielded a five-game untouchable Leafs base pack.

Kyle Dupas or his handler can bring it back again if they so choose. But it will be a choice.

You can make big moves, and you can push your team closer to the Stanley Cup with them.

they can. Let’s see if they will.

(Top photo: Steve Russell/Toronto Star via Getty Images)