In China, Xi Jinping is facing a difficult year on several fronts

Some analysts describe China’s turbulent exit from zero-Covid politics as a largely self-inflicted pain, exacerbated by Mr. Xi’s authoritarian style. The ramifications could be profound for Mr. Xi, who has promoted his pandemic strategy as an example of the Communist Party’s superior governance.

“This is likely to be a year of turmoil for Xi Jinping,” says Alfred Wu, an assistant professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.

It is set to exhaust the party’s energies in managing the economic and social impact from the end of Covid zero, as well as restoring the public’s trust, Mr. Wu says, adding that the prestige of the supreme leader is at stake. “Xi claims all the credit but he also deserves all the blame.”

Striving for “reasonable” growth

Chinese leaders have Stoic accent. They promised “reasonable” economic growth in 2023, and called on officials to stimulate domestic demand while noting plans to further ease regulations that have led to a downward spiral in the real estate market and hampered private business investment.

Nor has Mr. Xi accepted any criticism of his condescending ways. in the Politburo meeting in DecemberMr. Xi insisted on “absolute loyalty” to his leadership “under any circumstances”, while blaming local officials for the wrong implementation of his policies.

Mr. Shi said in a Televised New Year’s message. “Let us go the extra mile to advance. Perseverance is victory. Unity is victory.”

Many economists expect the coming year to be risky for China, citing the risks of this happening. An increase in the number of infections with the Covid-19 virus Disrupting supply chains and overwhelming the healthcare system. Although some analysts expect a recovery in trade and consumption after new outbreaks subside, possibly in the spring, it remains to be seen how strong this recovery will be.

said Bert Hofmann, director of the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore, in a recent newsletter.

temporary consumers

Chinese consumers It seemed temporary as 2022 drew to a close. Domestic flights rose 0.4% over the New Year holiday weekend compared to the same period a year earlier, while tourism spending rose 4%. Film box office revenues fell more than 45% year-over-year.

Beijing also faces an uphill battle rebuilding trust among businesses, which increasingly view Mr. Xi’s government as capricious in setting policy, says Jörg Wuttke, president of the European Union’s Chamber of Commerce in China.

in Survey 2022 Of its members, the Chamber of the European Union reported that 60% of respondents reported increased difficulties in doing business in China, compared to 47% a year earlier, due in part to an opaque regulatory environment and increased politicization of business. “We associate China with well-planned, well-organised government, and suddenly we see it capitulate in the face of Omicron,” says Mr. Wottke. “This takes away a lot of confidence in the government’s capabilities.”

Economists and business groups say the onus is on the Xi administration to restore public confidence. “Chinese people know who’s in charge,” says Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong. “The massive death toll, coupled with the collapse of the real estate market, will test people’s confidence in Beijing in 2023.”

international tensions

On the diplomatic front, Beijing’s transition to a post-pandemic future has raised hopes that a revival of cross-border interactions can help ease geopolitical tensions with the West. Mr. Xi himself has already bounced back from a self-imposed absence from the international stage by attending a number of multilateral summits in the final months of 2022.

China’s relations with Western governments remain fraught with Beijing’s support for Moscow throughout Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tensions with the United States remain simmering even with Mr. Xi and President Biden Met in novembervowing to restore dialogue and a measure of stability in a fractured relationship.

“Like Washington, Beijing seeks more near-term stability while investing in efforts to deter and counter perceived threats,” says Jessica Chen Weiss, a Cornell University professor who studies Chinese foreign policy. It says tensions are unlikely to subside, “without mutual measures to lower the temperature,” while campaigning ahead of the 2024 presidential election in the US and island democracy in Taiwan could add complications.

Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory, continues to view US efforts to strengthen cooperation with the island with deep suspicion. Since then Speaker of the House

Nancy PelosiOn the August visit to Taipei, which was condemned by China, the People’s Liberation Army conducted a series of combat operations Offered exercises Taiwan cutting capabilities. However, the Biden administration has pledged to continue providing it with weapons and training Help Taipei defend itself.

Despite recent setbacks, Mr. Xi appears determined to double down on his priorities, says Mr. Wu, the Singapore-based academic. “In difficult times like these, he often stresses the need for a greater ‘fighting spirit’, insisting that they must overcome any challenges.”