|In ad-spending forecasts from ZenithOptimedia and MagnaGlobal, fears related to Spain's weakening economy sunk predictions for the Eurozone and overall global growth.
Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia is forecasting that global ad spending will reach $502 billion in 2012, a downgrade to 4.3 per cent growth from 4.8 per cent it predicted in March, while Interpublic Group of Cos.' MagnaGlobal is reducing its 2012 ad growth forecast 4.8 per cent from the 5 per cent growth it predicted in December 2011.
MagnaGlobal's growth numbers are based on a global ad market expected to reach $480 billion this year, and a U.S. market accounting for $152 billion.
Just prior to releasing its report, ZenithOptimedia adjusted its growth prediction for Spain from -5.3 per cent to -12 per cent. As a result, the agency adjusted its predictions for the eurozone in 2012 to -1.1 per cent from -0.4 per cent. It also reduced its calculations for Western Europe to 0.4 per cent from up 0.9 per cent -- pretty grim considering the 1.5 per cent growth the agency had predicted for the region back in March. These late adjustments also revised total global ad-spending growth downward to 4.3 per cent from 4.4 per cent.
According to MagnaGlobal's study, "In Spain, this year's predicted drop of -8.4 per cent will be the fourth year of downturn in the last five years; at the end of 2012, the Spanish market will be 37 per cent smaller than its pre-slowdown level in 2007."
Aside from Spain, ad spending in Italy (-5.0 per cent), Portugal (-10.4 per cent) and Greece (-19.5 per cent) is shrinking "as local advertisers struggle to maintain their cash reserves, and international advertisers reconsider the long-term potential of their investments," according to the ZenithOptimedia report. It added that ad spending should be flat everywhere else in the Eurozone, but in Austria (3.9 per cent), Finland (3.2 per cent) and Germany (2.1 per cent) it's growing at about the rate of inflation.
"The eurozone is weighing down our predictions for Europe as a whole," the forecast stated. However, it doesn't expect the eurozone to meet disaster, "such as a break-up of the euro," this year. "On this basis, we predict eurozone ad spend will grow 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 3.0 per cent in 2014."
ZenithOptimedia also dropped Asia Pacific to 6.7 per cent growth from 7.4 per cent growth, and Latin America to 7.8 per cent from 9.2 per cent. In North America, spending growth holds steady at 3.6 per cent. Growth in the Middle East and North Africa also remains steady at a low 1 per cent, due to continued political and social unrest, the report noted.
A more positive outlook shows that global growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain unchanged, at 5.3 per cent and 6.1 per cent, respectively. Between 2011 and 2014, developing markets (defined as everywhere outside North America, Western Europe and Japan) are set to increase their share of the global ad market from 32.8 per cent to 36.7 per cent. Half of that growth will come from 10 developing markets. Beyond Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are expected to account for 35 per cent of global growth, six developing markets set to deliver 15 per cent of global growth include: Indonesia, Argentina, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey.
In ZenithOptimedia's forecast by medium, internet showed the most promise, with ad spending set to rise to 21.5 per cent in 2014 from 16 per cent in 2011. Display is the fastest-growing subcategory, with 20 per cent annual growth. Social and video, it noted, are driving growth. For example, the report stated that paid ads appearing within social-media sites like Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn accounted for 14.4 per cent of internet display in 2011. Additionally, the firm expects that internet advertising will account for 55 per cent of the growth in total spending over the next three years.
The next biggest category is TV; the firm expects it will contribute 42 per cent of growth. Newspaper advertising will continue to shrink an average 1.2 per cent a year, but magazine advertising should stabilise in 2014, the firm predicted.
MagnaGlobal expects TV spending to grow by 5.2 per cent and remain the No. 1 medium globally. According to the firm, the media will benefit from the "quadrennial" events of 2012, including the Olympics in the U.K. It predicts that internet advertising will grow 13.5 per cent to nearly $100 billion. Internet is set to be the second-biggest media, outgrowing newspapers and reaching a 20.3 per cent global market share.