|According to ZenithOptimedia, global ad expenditure will grow by 4.1 per cent in 2011, just 0.1 percentage points below the prediction made in April. It will return to $471 billion (U.S), the level it reached in 2008 before the recession. The ad market continues to recover from the 2009 recession, but growth has dipped this year in response to economic pressures, natural disaster and political disruption. More robust growth is forecast to resume in 2012 and 2013.
Developing markets continue to expand far faster than developed markets. North America advertising is expected to grow by an average of 3.1 per cent a year between 2010 and 2013, and Western Europe to grow by 3.4 per cent. Japan is expected to grow just 0.9 per cent a year, after a big drop in 2011 followed by the recovery of lost ground over the next two years.
The sheer size of the US, 3.3 times the next-largest market, means it will contribute the most new ad dollars to the global market over the next three years despite its slow growth. However, the next five largest contributors are all developing markets: China (which contributes almost as much as the US, US$13.0 billion), Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and India. Overall, developing markets will contribute 62 per cent of new ad dollars over the next three years.
The internet continues to grow at the fastest rate of any medium, says the report, at an average of 14.2 per cent a year between 2010 and 2013. Display is the fastest-growing segment, growing by 16.4 per cent a year, driven mainly by online video and social media. Streaming video ads are growing quickly, thanks to the emergence of do-it-yourself tools that have allowed local advertisers to enter the market.
In most developed markets, social media sites are near the top of the list of most-popular websites, and they are often way ahead of their rivals in time spent by users. In the US, social media use has jumped 25 per cent over the last year, and now accounts for 16 per cent of all time spent online, and 34 per cent of display impressions.
Concluding, the report suggests this snapshot of the study:
- Global ad expenditure forecast to reach US$471 billion this year, the same as the peak level of expenditure reached in 2008
- Expenditure predicted to grow 4.1 per cent in 2011, essentially confirming the 4.2 per cent growth predicted in April
- Small softening in the Americas and Europe counterbalanced by stronger spending in Asia Pacific
- Middle Eastern advertising continues to decline as political disruption spreads
- Internet is the fastest-growing medium (14.2 per cent a year) between 2010 and 2013
- Television to contribute most new ad dollars (49 per cent of total)
For the complete PDF report from ZenithOptimedia, please visit here.