Carat, the leading independent media communications agency, has published upgraded forecasts for global advertising expenditure in 2010 and 2011, driven by a faster than expected rebound in the US advertising market and continued robust growth in Asia pacific region. Data show the major markets generally continuing the recent trends towards stabilisation.
Commenting on the forecasts, Jerry Buhlmann, Chief Executive of Aegis Group plc, said:
"Carat's revised global forecast adspend for 2010 and 2011 is further evidence of a rebound in advertising markets. The indications are that global spending this year will rise by 3.9 per cent, a 1 per cent upward revision from the forecast of six months ago, which is a further signal of an increasingly optimistic environment. The overall data, however, does compare against weak 2009 figures and is comprised of some significant regional variances.
"While all major markets are now showing signs of stabilisation, this is being led by a faster than expected rebound in the US and continued growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Western Europe continues to be slower, and is impacted by Germany and Spain which remain in negative territory.
"Overall, while the short term economic outlook remains uncertain, these forecasts are an encouraging sign."
Carat's revised prediction for worldwide global advertising expenditure this year is for an increase of 3.9 per cent - the beginning of a modest recovery for the market. This compares to the forecast of 2.9 per cent issued in March. The forecasts for 2011 are for further modest recovery of 4.7 per cent - an increase of 0.7 per cent from the forecast in March.
The predicted growth, however, is against weak comparators, coming as it does in the wake of the steep spending declines in 2009. Even allowing for the growth, the global advertising market is expected to be in line with 2006 levels.
Growth in 2010 has been driven by a recovery in North American markets, supported by robust growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. In Western Europe forecasts have been revised upwards in the UK, France and Italy and Germany. The rebound in Russia has significantly boosted growth in Central & Eastern Europe.
By Media, on-line growth is expected to accelerate by 13.5 per cent, with further increases in spend forecast.
The faster growing sectors for 2010 are expected to be Retail, FMCG, food and beauty & healthcare. Public sector spend, is forecast to be in decline along with the travel and entertainment sectors. The automotive sector is seen to be recovering, particularly in Europe and China. Financial services and telecommunications sectors remain a mixed picture in all markets in 2010.
Expectations for 2010 have improved in almost all regions against the forecasts issued in March 2010.
In the US, the advertising market has rebounded more quickly than expected from last year's depressed economy, with an improvement across most advertising categories and media sectors so far in 2010. The newspaper sector remains challenged, while television and radio have rebounded. Digital, in particular on-line search is capturing a bigger percentage of total media spending at 10.3 per cent. We forecast growth of 1.1 per cent in 2010, with moderate continued growth in 2011 of 1.7 per cent. Digital and mobile spending is expected to increase at a faster pace, although traditional media will still have the largest share of advertising revenues. The impact of the Winter Olympics in Canada has boosted our growth forecast for 2010 to 3.6 per cent. The economy there is in full recovery mode and the advertising market has returned to normal conditions. In 2011, growth is expected to be 4.5 per cent, with clients beginning to spend more and diversifying communications channels to optimise their media mix.
Latin America has endured the economic crisis much more resilience than other regions, with growth in 2009 of 8.7 per cent. We forecast a double digit increase of 11.2 per cent for 2010. The markets are still very much TV driven, with 63 per cent share of spend, whilst the internet is the fastest growing media, with 25 per cent growth, but the share of spend online is still only around 5 per cent.
Our forecasts for Western Europe in 2010 have improved to 1.3 per cent, driven by the UK, France and Italy. Following the negative growth seen in 2009, most markets are expected to return to positive growth in 2010 except for Germany, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain.
The UK market is experiencing a slight resurgence, driven by TV and the online market, with incremental growth coming through in the first two quarters of 2010, supported by 15 per cent growth in the TV market over that period. The total market in the second half is looking reasonably buoyant and we expect growth of between 2 per cent and 3 per cent in the period. We have therefore increased our 2010 forecast to 3.5 per cent, with continued growth of 4.1 per cent expected in 2011.
We forecast 2.9 per cent growth in the French advertising market for 2010, compared to our previously published expectation of 1.7 per cent, with growth expected across a number of sectors. Growth in Italy is expected to be more moderate at 1.5 per cent, with most media, in particular television and on-line, expected to return to growth.
In Germany our expectations for 2010 have significantly improved since March and we expect a return to positive growth in 2011, with digital channels remaining an important growth driver.
Spain saw a relatively positive second quarter of 2010, boosted by the World Cup and a number of advertisers bringing forward their budgets into this period. However, the second half of the year remains uncertain, with only minor growth expected. The market is, however, expected to return to moderate growth in 2011 at 1.1 per cent.
Growth in Central and Eastern Europe has been revised upwards from 3 per cent to 5 per cent, rebounding from the 23 per cent decline in 2009. Growth in the region has been predominantly driven by the Russian advertising market, with many of the markets in the region are expected to report declines in 2010, but not to the extent of those seen in 2009. Russia has started to recover from the 26 per cent decline in 2009 with 10.8 per cent market growth forecast for the full year, approximately level with 2007 spend. This is up from the previous forecast of 1.5 per cent, with all media expected to stabilise or return to growth.
Asia Pacific has also seen 2010 forecasts revised upwards - from 6.8 per cent in March to 8.2 per cent, primarily driven by improvements in Australia and China. The Australian advertising market recovered in late 2009 and into 2010, boosted by a number of significant sporting and political events. In 2010 and 2011, the two biggest areas of growth, in terms of media, are expected to be digital and outdoor. We forecast a 16.8 per cent increase in the Chinese market in 2010, with the general economy continuing to improve.
All media are expected to return to growth, except for the newspaper sector, which, along with magazines, is expected to be the weakest performer. The two biggest areas of growth are internet and television, followed by radio, outdoor and cinema. Whilst magazines are expected to see positive growth from 2011 onwards, newspapers are expected still to be in decline, although at a slower rate. Online continues to capture a bigger percentage of the media spend in 2010 at 11.3 per cent, increasing to 12.1 per cent in 2011.Television, however, retains its position as the most popular medium.
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