Publicis Group's ZenithOptimedia believes the 2010 worldwide advertising market will gain slightly from its earlier estimates -- more than doubling its earlier estimated growth rate to 2.2 per cent over 2009 to a total of $456 billion.
Expected increases from the two biggest media categories -- TV and online advertising spending -- contributed to ZenithOptimedia's higher estimates, as reported in MediaPost. The big ad agency group expects there to be 4.3 per cent more TV media dollars and 13.9 per cent more online ad money at work this year. Internet advertising will climb 15.4 per cent next year and 17.1 per cent in 2012.
"Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world," ZenithOptimedia said in a statement.
But geographically it's still a mixed picture. North America is forecast to be down 1.5% this year; Western Europe up 0.4% per cent and Asia-Pacific will be 5.9 per cent higher. Central and Eastern Europe will improve 5.7 per cent, Latin America will climb 9.2 per cent, and Africa/Middle East/Rest Of World will gain 6.3 per cent.
In the U.S., ad spending will slip another 2 per cent. Still, this is better than 2009's 12.9 per cent decline. Things will turn around in 2011, when the U.S. will inch up with a 1.6 per cent gain in ad spending. Ad spending will grow 1.8 per cent in North America.
Overall, next year should be even better. ZenithOptimedia said global ad spending should grow by 4.1 per cent in 2011 and 5.3 per cent in 2012, from a 2010 total of $456 billion.
The agency group also noted that newspapers' market share would fall to 19.4 per cent by 2012 from 23.1 per cent in 2009. Magazines would be down to 8.6 per cent from 11.6 per cent for the same period.
OPINION/FEEDBACK TO THE EDITOR